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Velocifi ingests fresh inventory from 62,000 franchised and independent dealers every 24 hours . That rolling data set—millions of VIN observations per month—gives us a near‑real‑time view of what’s really happening on Main Street lots, not just in auction lanes or OEM boardrooms.
Below is our data‑backed outlook for 2025, broken into three parts:
- Inventory supply and mix
- Pricing and days‑on‑lot trends
- Where the biggest F&I gains will hide
1. Supply: Normalizing, but Not a Flood
| Metric | 2023 Avg. | Q2‑2024 | Trend into 2025 |
| Units‑on‑Lot (median) | 39 | 41 | → Low‑single‑digit growth |
| <4‑Year‑Old Share | 24 % | 29 % | ↑ as off‑lease volume returns |
| 120k‑Plus Mileage Share | 16 % | 13 % | ↓ dealers cherry‑pick lower miles |
What it means
- Supply is inching up, but the mix is skewing younger and cleaner as fleets and off‑lease pipelines normalize.
- Independent lots that built a business on 150 k‑mile units may feel the squeeze; franchise stores will expand used operations to soak up returning leases.
2. Pricing & Days‑on‑Lot: Plateau, Then Gentle Slide
| Indicator | 2023 Peak | Q2‑2024 | 2025 Projection |
| Average List Price | $28,600 | $26,900 | $26,000–$26,500 |
| Average Days‑on‑Lot | 41 | 47 | 45-48 |
| Percent‑to‑Market (all makes) | 101.7 % | 99.8 % | 98–99 % |
Velocifi’s percent‑to‑market metric compares each VIN’s ask to its local market comp . The slide from 101 % to sub‑100 % tells us dealers are trimming gross to keep turn rates reasonable.
3. F&I & Lending Opportunities
| Segment | 2025 Tailwind | Recommended Play |
| 2019–2021 Off‑Lease (45k‑65k miles) | Dealers will price aggressively to win CPO‑minded buyers. | Upsell exclusionary VSC: factory bumper‑to‑bumper expires in 12–24 mo. |
| High‑Mileage Light Trucks | Still under‑supplied; demand from contractors remains high. | Tiered powertrain coverage with disappearing deductible—protects margin without scaring lenders. |
| EV Resale (2018–2020 builds) | Battery degradation anxiety grows as first‑owner warranties lapse. | Battery‑specific service contracts + GAP refresh to cover higher residual risk. |
| Floorplan Lines | Inventory value stabilizes; advance‑rate pressure eases. | Line‑utilization coaching: lenders use daily lot snapshots to upsell unused credit . |
4. Action Plan for 2025
- Re‑segment your territory searches
- Add a Model Year 2019–2021 filter to find off‑lease heavy stores.
- Layer <70k miles to zero‑in on warranty‑gap inventory.
- Track percent-to-market drift
- When a dealer dips below 90% gross is thin—lead with F&I products that boost PVR without raising the sticker.
- Offer penetration benchmarks
- Most independents still write <20 % VSC penetration . Show them how a 5‑point lift equals $30k+ annual gross.
- Align with lenders
- Share your inventory intel with floorplan partners. When they trust the collateral, they green-light more deals—and you sell more coverage.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does the data come from?
Velocifi scrapes dealer websites nightly, then normalizes VIN, price, and mileage fields. Over 1 billion VIN observations power the trends above.
How reliable are the projections?
We extrapolated Q2‑2024 velocity and pricing deltas against historical seasonality (2018–2022) and macro indicators (Fed rate path, wholesale index). Projections will update quarterly.
Can I get state‑level breakouts?
Yes—Market Insights lets you slice any metric by state, DMA, or custom radius in seconds.
See Your Local 2025 Outlook in Real Time
National trends are helpful; hyper‑local data closes deals.
Book a Velocifi demo and pull a 2025 outlook for your territory—complete with dealer‑level targets ready for outreach.
